Catalonia is being warned to expect added weather pressure if the developing El Niño in the Pacific becomes a strong or super event. In Tarragona and across the region, experts say the likely effects include hotter summers, longer droughts and more intense autumn storms.
José Luis Camacho, technical adviser at Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), said there is an “82% probability of an El Niño and a 40% chance of it being a strong El Niño”. Toni Barrera, a climatology technician at the Catalan Meteorological Service (Meteocat), said reference organisations in the equatorial Pacific see a “90-100% probability” of El Niño and a “50% chance of it being strong”.
El Niño is an atmosphere-ocean phenomenon in the Pacific, where warmer sea surface temperatures change wind patterns and affect weather far beyond the region. Barrera said it has “global implications”, while Camacho said a very strong event can bring floods in some coastal areas at the end of the year.
For Catalonia, the link is indirect but still important. Javier Sigró, a researcher at the Centre for Climate Change (C3) at Rovira i Virgili University (URV), said a Super El Niño is likely to mean “warmer summers and rainier autumns” in Catalonia. He added that it may not directly shape local climate, but it can intensify some events.
Both Sigró and Barrera warned that the main concern is not necessarily more extreme episodes, but more intense ones. They said this could mean a greater frequency of droughts and stronger dana events, with some effects possible as early as this summer or autumn. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has said El Niño formation may occur between May and July, and that models indicate it could be an intense episode.
Carles Ibáñez, director of the Climate Resilience Centre at Eurecat in Amposta, said the situation raises questions about water supply, forest fires and flood risk. He also urged planning based on lessons from the Valencia dana, including flood mapping, more space for water, prevention, public information and training. For readers following Catalonia’s climate coverage, see our news tag for more updates.