Video: @catalunyaac, @marina_quintana_ac / IG
Vote split between right and independence
Data journalist Roger Tugas has said between 20% and 30% of Aliança Catalana voters would likely support far-right party Vox in the upcoming 29 November general election, with a similar proportion potentially backing Junts. This division reflects the heterogeneous nature of Aliança's support base, which includes both protest voters and those focused on Catalan independence or anti-immigration policies.
Key voter groups identified
According to the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) data cited by Tugas, 40% to 45% of Aliança Catalana voters are not in favour of independence, making a shift to Vox more plausible. Conversely, voters motivated by national identity and language issues may be drawn to Junts. A territorial split is also suggested, with Aliança supporters in the Barcelona metropolitan area and coastal regions more likely to back Vox, while those in inland Catalonia may lean towards Junts or even ERC.
Election context and projections
Aliança Catalana is not fielding candidates in the 29 November election, creating uncertainty over where its voter base will land. The CEO’s latest barometer survey, conducted before the official election call, indicates a stable political landscape in Catalonia, with the PSC leading clearly, followed by Esquerra Republicana. Vox is projected to gain ground nationally and could become the third-largest force in Catalonia, potentially winning five to seven seats. Junts, meanwhile, faces a challenging election, with some projections suggesting it could fall from seven to four or five seats despite possible gains from Aliança voters.
Broader voting trends
Tugas also highlighted the growing trend of 'dual voting', where voters support different parties in regional and national elections. ERC leads among pro-independence voters with around 30% support, followed by Junts at 16% to 17%, while the PSC attracts some independence-minded voters due to policy priorities like housing.
“A 45% of Aliança Catalana voters are not independentist. Therefore, we should not be surprised if they now vote for Vox.”
This underscores a broader shift where national identity is not always the decisive factor in voter choice.
Primary sources: gencat.cat. Reported by elcritic.cat, naciodigital.cat, elplural.com, elperiodico.cat.
