Strategic voting returns in Catalonia
New analysis of recent surveys by the Centre d'Investigacions Sociològiques (CIS) indicates a significant resurgence in dual voting among Catalans, where voters support different parties in elections to the regional Parliament and the national Congress. According to aggregated data from the last four CIS barometers, involving nearly 2,380 respondents in Catalonia, around 40% of those intending to vote in both elections would choose different parties. This trend, long observed in Catalan politics, weakened during the peak of the independence movement but is now re-emerging notably.
Shifts from ERC to PSC and Aliança to Vox
One of the most prominent shifts involves supporters of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC). Nearly three in ten ERC voters at the regional level say they would back the Socialist Party (PSC-PSOE) in a congressional election. Conversely, about two in ten PSC voters would switch to ERC in a parliamentary vote. This cross-voting helps explain why, despite ERC potentially matching or slightly surpassing the PSC in seat projections for the Catalan Parliament, the PSC remains strongly positioned to lead nationally in Catalonia, possibly doubling ERC’s representation in Congress. A similar pattern appears with Aliança Catalana. Between 24% and 36% of its potential parliamentary voters indicate they would support Vox in a national election, while around 11% would opt for the People’s Party (PP). In reverse, about three in ten Vox supporters would vote for Aliança in a regional contest.
The dual vote reflects strategic choices shaped by the distinct political arenas of Madrid and Barcelona.
Why voters split their ballots
The phenomenon stems from voters making strategic decisions based on which party can exert greater influence in each chamber. Parties with a primarily Catalan focus, such as ERC, Junts, CUP, and Aliança, tend to lose support when elections shift to the national level. Similarly, state-wide parties like the PSC, Sumar, PP, and Vox see lower continuity in regional votes. For instance, roughly half of voters supporting state-level parties in congressional polls would either switch allegiance or abstain in a regional election. The same applies in reverse for voters of Catalan-focused parties. Aliança’s dual-vote dynamic may also reflect uncertainty over its participation in future general elections. The party has so far ruled out running in national polls, pushing its supporters toward right-wing Spanish parties like Vox or PP when choosing congressional representatives.
National vs regional dynamics
Historically, major state-wide parties dominated congressional elections in Catalonia, though this shifted during the height of the independence push. CiU won in 2011, followed by En Comú Podem in 2015–2016 and ERC in 2019. However, the PSC regained dominance in 2023 and, according to CIS data, could maintain or even strengthen its position in a future national poll, partly due to the growing dual-vote effect. Meanwhile, projections suggest Vox could emerge as the second-largest force in Congress in Catalonia, bolstered by cross-support from Aliança voters. While the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) of the Generalitat has recorded similar trends, the CIS figures show more pronounced shifts, particularly between ERC and PSC. The findings underscore how electoral strategies in Catalonia continue to be shaped by the complex interplay between regional identity and national governance.
Reported by naciodigital.cat, elpuebloinforma.com, parlament.cat, cis.es, Nació Digital.
