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Electoral shock predicted in Catalonia
A new opinion poll conducted by Ipsos for La Vanguardia forecasts a dramatic shift in Catalonia’s political landscape, with far-right separatist party Aliança Catalana (AC) surging from two to 30 seats in the Catalan Parliament if elections were held today. The survey, carried out between 23 September and 1 October with 2,000 respondents, indicates that AC would tie with the governing PSC, which would fall from 42 to 30 seats despite Salvador Illa leading the Generalitat, the regional government of Catalonia.
Parliament faces deadlock
ERC would gain three seats, rising to 23, while Comuns would drop from six to four. The PP would lose four seats, ending on 11, and Vox would gain seven, reaching 18. Together, far-right parties AC and Vox would hold 48 seats, 35% of the 135-seat chamber, one of the highest such proportions in Europe. Junts would suffer the steepest decline, falling from 35 to 16 seats, losing its status as a dominant force in pro-independence politics.
Only Esquerra resistiría, with a saldo de tres diputados más
With no viable majority possible, the scenario points to political paralysis. The current progressive coalition backing Illa, reliant on ERC and Comuns support, would collapse, mustering only 60 seats, eight short of a majority. A theoretical pro-independence majority of 72 seats could exist through an alliance of AC, Junts, ERC, and CUP. But deep ideological divisions make such a pact unlikely in practice.
Growing discontent drives shift
Half of respondents believe Catalonia is heading in the wrong direction, unchanged from last year, while approval of the region’s trajectory has dropped six points to 20%. Among young people, up to 60% hold negative views. Housing shortages remain the top concern among Catalans, mirroring national trends. Gabriel Rufián of ERC is the best-rated political leader at 52% approval, followed by Illa at 36%. Silvia Orriols, leader of AC, benefits from shifting voter allegiances but does not rank highly in personal approval.
No clear path to government
Despite being technically the largest party by vote share at 21.7%, the PSC would be unable to form a government due to Spain’s electoral law, which favours rural over urban areas. Catalonia has never adopted its own electoral system, leaving it vulnerable to structural distortions. Illa has two years before the next scheduled election to reverse the trend, but the rise of the far right reflects a broader European pattern. Political fragmentation, with eight parties projected to win seats, coupled with intense polarisation paints a picture of a deeply divided and potentially ungovernable Catalonia.
Primary sources: Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO), gencat.cat. Reported by elconfidencial.com, lavanguardia.com, marca.com, El Confidencial.
