As Catalonia marks the Diada on Friday 11 September, a July barometer by the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, the Generalitat’s public opinion research centre, projected Aliança Catalana to win 23–25 seats in the 135-seat Parliament of Catalonia if an election were held then.

The projection, published on 9 July, would make the far-right pro-independence party led by Ripoll mayor Sílvia Orriols the chamber’s third-largest force, ahead of Junts per Catalunya. Aliança Catalana currently has two parliamentary representatives, elected in May 2024.

For Catalan voters, the figures indicate a potential shift in the balance of the Parliament, where governments and legislation depend on support from at least 68 of the 135 members.

July CEO projection

The CEO barometer placed the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) first, despite a projected fall from its current 42 seats. Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) was projected to be second.

  • PSC: 36–38 seats, compared with 42 currently.
  • ERC: 24–26 seats.
  • Aliança Catalana: 23–25 seats.
  • Junts per Catalunya: 16–18 seats, compared with 35 currently.
  • Partido Popular and Vox: 12–13 seats each.
“Structural” decline.Joan Rodríguez Teruel, director of the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, describing Junts’ projected loss of support.

Projected movement from Junts and Vox

RTVE’s report on the barometer said 28% of people who voted for Junts in 2024 would switch to Aliança Catalana in the survey’s voting-intention estimate. It also said 23% of Vox supporters in 2024 would move to Aliança Catalana.

The poll estimated support for Aliança Catalana at 14–16%, while Junts was projected at 11–13%. The CEO described a survey-based electoral scenario, rather than an election result.

Supporters of Aliança Catalana are pictured at the Fossar de les Moreres memorial in Barcelona during the Diada period.

Primary sources: dsp.interior.gencat.cat. Reported by emporda.info, rtve.es, publico.es, elpais.com, elconfidencial.com, en.ara.cat, elperiodico.com, iniciativa2028.es, gironanoticies.com, L'Empordà.