Aliança poised for major gains
A new political poll published on Friday 11 September 2026 suggests a dramatic shift in Catalonia's parliamentary landscape, with Aliança Catalana rising to second place if elections were held now. The survey, conducted by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, forecasts that the party led by Ripoll mayor Sílvia Orriols would jump from two seats in 2024 to between 25 and 28 seats, capturing 16.7% of the vote. This would position Aliança as the second-largest force in the Catalan Parliament and the leading party among independence supporters, surpassing both Junts and ERC despite its current small representation.
PSC lead weakened, Illa faces tougher path
The Socialist Party (PSC), currently led by President Salvador Illa, would remain the largest party according to the poll, but with significantly reduced numbers. It is projected to win between 31 and 33 seats, down from 42 in 2024, and secure 23.3% of the vote, a loss of up to 11 seats. Even with support from ERC and Comuns, the existing governing coalition would fall short of the 68 seats needed for an absolute majority, reaching only 54 to 58 seats combined. This undermines Illa’s ability to form a stable government without new alliances.
Junts collapses, independentist bloc fragmented
Junts would suffer heavy losses, dropping from 35 seats to between 19 and 22, with 13.2% of the vote. ERC would hold steady at 19–21 seats (14% of the vote), while Comuns would decline from six to four seats. Although the total number of pro-independence seats would rise due to Aliança’s surge, other parties maintain a strict cordon sanitaire against it, making any governing coalition involving Aliança politically unviable for now.
Voter transfer and public sentiment
The poll identifies significant voter shifts, with 25.8% of Aliança’s support coming from former Junts voters, 12.4% from Vox, 10.4% from ERC, 7.4% from PP, and 6.5% from PSC. Public dissatisfaction appears high: 41.5% believe the economy has worsened, 68% rate public healthcare negatively, and 67.8% say insecurity has increased. Only 65% of previous PSC voters say they would back the party again.
Sonar després del debat
“El partit de dreta populista que lidera la batlessa de Ripoll, Sílvia Orriols, es convertiria en segona força política amb un ascens meteòric.”
, Source: elnacional.cat, based on Sigma Dos data published 11 September 2026
Primary sources: govern.cat, Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO). Reported by elnacional.cat, elmundo.es, yo_dona, democrata.es, elindependiente.com, Racó Català.
