Barcelona was the setting for AIReF’s latest warning on Spain’s pension system, as the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility confirmed that the pension spending rule has been met, while saying this does not secure long-term sustainability.

The finding updates AIReF’s 2025 study and was presented by president Inés Olóndriz on Friday. She said the lack of major change in the analysis was not surprising, because it concerns a long-term structural issue. The current report says net pension spending, after revenue measures, is projected to average 13% of GDP between 2022 and 2050, which is below the 13.3% threshold set in the government’s royal decree-law.

AIReF’s forecast is slightly better than last year’s, when it projected 13.2% of GDP. The improvement comes from a higher estimated impact from revenue measures aimed at strengthening the system. Gross public pension spending is still projected to average 14.6% of GDP over the 2022 to 2050 period, while revenue measures are now estimated at 1.6% of GDP on average.

The authority said it kept most of its previous estimates, with one exception, the reform of self-employed worker contributions, which is now based on declared income data from 2023 and 2024. On the regularisation of immigrants, AIReF estimates a practically zero long-term impact. The study was carried out at the government’s request to update the 2025 analysis with the latest macroeconomic data and available revenue information.

AIReF also repeated its view that formal compliance with the rule does not remove pressure on public finances. In a constant-policy scenario, public debt would keep rising in the long term, driven by population ageing and a vulnerable fiscal position. After updating demographic, macroeconomic and fiscal projections, the authority says debt could reach 123% of GDP by 2050.

The report also projects healthcare spending rising to 7.9% of GDP by 2050 and long-term care spending reaching 1.6%. Education spending is expected to fall by seven tenths of a percentage point of GDP between 2025 and 2050, to 3.3%. AIReF said population ageing will continue to put pressure on pensions, healthcare and care services, and Olóndriz again said the spending rule has design problems and is not adequate as a measure of sustainability. More Catalonia news