Aliança Catalana would become the third largest force in the Parliament of Catalonia if a regional election were held now, according to the latest Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) barometer tables published by the Generalitat. For voters, the headline finding is that the poll projects a reshaped chamber: the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) remains first, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) is second, and Aliança Catalana moves ahead of Junts.

The same CEO projection indicates that a pact between PSC, ERC and Comuns would be the only alliance to reach the 68-seat absolute majority in the 135-seat chamber. That matters directly for residents because it points to which combinations could realistically form a government after an election, and which could not without outside support.

Seat projection in the CEO barometer

The official statistical tables for the CEO's Baròmetre d'Opinió Política, 2nd wave of 2024, set out the voting and seat estimates for the Parliament. In the published tables, PSC is projected to win again, while ERC improves and Aliança Catalana rises above Junts.

  • PSC is projected to win 40–42 seats.
  • ERC is projected to win 28–30 seats.
  • Aliança Catalana is projected to win 20–21 seats.
  • Junts is projected to win 18–20 seats.
  • Vox is projected to win 16–17 seats.
  • Comuns Sumar is projected to win 8–10 seats.
  • CUP is projected to win 7–8 seats.
  • Partit Popular is projected to win 5–7 seats.

Those figures are taken from the CEO's seat projection tables in the official PDF released by the Generalitat. On that basis, Aliança Catalana and Vox together could reach 36–38 seats.

"The CEO has published the results of the 2nd wave of the 2024 barometer," the Generalitat said when releasing the survey.

Which alliances could command a majority

With the Parliament's absolute majority set at 68 seats, the poll points to only one combination that clearly passes that threshold on the published ranges: PSC, ERC and Comuns, with a combined 76–82 seats.

The pro-independence parties without Aliança Catalana would not reach 68 on these projections. ERC, Junts and CUP together would total 53–58 seats. If Aliança Catalana were added to those parties, the combined bloc would rise to 73–79 seats.

The CEO tables therefore suggest that any government led by the traditional pro-independence parties would need either Aliança Catalana's votes or another arrangement not reflected in the straightforward seat arithmetic.

Where readers can check the full results

The full barometer, including the statistical tables and methodology, is available in the official CEO PDF published by the Generalitat. The release note announcing the results is also available from the Govern press office.

Readers who want to compare this survey with later polling can also consult the Generalitat's note on the final wave of the 2024 barometer.

Primary sources: Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) - Generalitat de Catalunya, Generalitat de Catalunya - Govern, Govern de Catalunya (Generalitat de Catalunya). Reported by Source Text Link, El Periódico (CA).