Recent political surveys in Catalonia show a resurgence for Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and a sharp decline for Junts. This trend is evident in a YouGov poll published by Ara on Sunday, 4 May, and aligns with earlier findings from Electomania and the November CEO survey.
The Ara poll was particularly negative for Carles Puigdemont's Junts party, projecting a drop from its current 35 seats to between 11 and 14. This decline highlights ERC's recovery, though the party remains far from its peak performance. The public polling institute CEO was expected to release another survey in late March, but bureaucratic delays have postponed its publication.
Polls, much like debates on immigration, require a user manual due to the reactions they provoke. People often accuse those who commission surveys of trying to manipulate public opinion, and they accept or reject poll results based on whether the findings confirm their own biases. When interpreting polls, it is important to remember two things: a survey, especially if multiple polls show similar results, indicates underlying trends, and it is a snapshot of a specific moment, not a prediction of election outcomes. Voting is increasingly tactical and volatile, which explains last-minute shifts.
Shifting Political Landscape
The Ara poll shows significant growth for Aliança Catalana (AC) at the expense of Junts and other right-wing parties like Vox and the PP. It suggests that over a third of the Catalan parliament could be held by the intransigent right, including AC and Spanish right-wing parties. ERC is gaining support, partly from former Junts and Socialist voters, but the PSC appears stagnant, and Junts is facing an emergency.
The political space is in flux, particularly for the nationalist right. Upcoming municipal and Spanish general elections, which precede the Catalan parliamentary elections, could further impact these dynamics.
Junts faces the challenge of selecting a candidate for Barcelona who can attract voters in mid-sized cities and the Barcelona metropolitan area, a traditional weak spot for the party. In the interim, Junts has opted for confrontation with the Socialists and ERC in both the Spanish Congress and the Catalan Parliament. Paradoxically, this strategy benefits the PSOE. This approach worries some mayors and reflects a shift to the right, aiming to reconnect with the spirit of the former Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya (CDC). So far, this strategy has not yielded positive results, and the party's identity-focused discourse, in the absence of a clear independence roadmap, has not stopped voters from moving to AC. Aliança Catalana draws support from discontented conservative voters, similar to how Vox gained ground in Spain at the expense of the PP and Ciutadans, rather than from the left.
PSC's Stagnation and ERC's Outreach
The PSC, which holds 42 seats and is key to any governing scenario, has not seen a boost in Catalan nationalist votes despite Salvador Illa's presidency, agreements with Madrid, or Pedro Sánchez's positive image in Catalonia. This stagnation is likely due to three factors. Firstly, governing with limited resources can lead to more disappointment than satisfaction, a pattern seen with past presidents over the last three decades. Secondly, the PSC's promise of good governance to recover the 'lost decade' of the independence process has faltered on core issues like education and Rodalies commuter rail services. Thirdly, with Junts in decline and ERC engaging in pacts, the 'independence risk' that mobilised unionist voters, particularly those from Ciutadans, has diminished. These voters may not switch parties, but if they no longer fear independence and perceive the Socialists as prioritising Catalan language and self-governance, they may become demotivated and abstain from voting.
There is still much political activity before the Catalan elections, but parties cannot ignore poll trends, become overconfident, or fail to revise their strategies if necessary.
May Day Demonstrations and Political Figures
The May Day holiday weekend, despite causing significant traffic queues, did not deter trade union demonstrations. Key leaders from the PSC, ERC, and Comuns attended the CCOO and UGT marches. Other gatherings, such as the afternoon alternative march and the Socialist Youth Organisation's event, also saw good attendance, though without top-tier leaders. Oriol Junqueras, in his second phase leading ERC, aims to connect with working-class communities concerned about low wages, housing, and transport. He had a busy and union-diverse May Day, reflecting ERC's evolving stance.
Before the traditional offering to Francesc Layret, the ERC president had breakfast with party trade unionists, attended the march of the two state-level unions on Via Laietana, and concluded his day at a lunch organised by Intersindical-CSC for its members outside the Mercat del Born. The pro-independence union, active in education strikes and growing in workplaces, recently surpassed 7,000 members despite a challenging environment for the sovereignty movement. In addition to Junqueras, Junts MP Agustí Colomines, who promotes a progressive wing within his party, also attended the Intersindical event.
Cultural and Sports Notes
A theatrical monologue can become a conversation about love and life between the writer and the performer. This is the case with 'Robert', a play written and directed by Laia Alsina Ferrer and performed by Robert González. The play, which includes passionate and sometimes disorienting twists, keeps the audience engaged and provokes thought. It is currently showing at La Gleva (Teatres del Farró) in Barcelona.
In sports, FC Barcelona's La Liga title celebration was postponed after Real Madrid's victory against Espanyol at Cornellà. Madrid's win further complicates matters for Espanyol, which started the season strongly but has struggled for months, leading to questions about coach Manolo González's future. Girona is also facing difficulties, having had an inconsistent season and losing at home to direct rival Mallorca. Meanwhile, Barça's women's team celebrated reaching the Champions League final after a significant victory at Camp Nou.
