Barcelona’s future affordable housing growth is shifting beyond the city limits, with Baix Llobregat and Vallès Occidental set to lead new construction through 2040. While Barcelona retains capacity for up to 75,139 new homes, land scarcity limits expansion, according to Catalonia Digital Twin, a digital model developed by Aretian.
The study identifies these two metropolitan comarcas as the main reservoirs of available land for affordable housing. Vallès Occidental holds the largest potential, with between 120,620 and 193,631 new homes possible. Terrassa alone could add up to 43,935 units, followed by Sant Cugat del Vallès (35,380), Sabadell (31,973) and Rubí (27,330).
Major Growth in Baix Llobregat
Baix Llobregat ranks second, with an estimated 70,649 to 115,408 new homes feasible across municipalities including Cornellà de Llobregat, Viladecans, Sant Boi de Llobregat, El Prat de Llobregat and Sant Feliu de Llobregat. Castelldefels, Gavà, Viladecans and Sant Boi are highlighted as key sites for social housing growth.
Mollet Del Vallès Approves 3,000 New Homes
In a concrete example, the Catalan Territorial Commission definitively approved Mollet del Vallès’ new Municipal Urban Planning Plan (POUM) this week. The plan projects the town reaching 58,500 residents by 2040 and includes 2,950 new homes, 1,552 of which will be protected, or more than half.
The new POUM is a good plan for the city because it bets on contained, sustainable growth, more affordable housing, natural space protection and economic reinforcement.
The main development zone will be El Calderí, where around 1,406 homes will be built, with 40% reserved for protected housing. The plan also prioritises urban regeneration over outward expansion and strengthens industrial zones like Can Prat and La Teneria.
Housing Shortfall Persists Across Region
Catalonia faces a projected shortfall of 750,000 homes, with nearly 500,000 of those needed in the metropolitan area alone. Aretian’s model identifies 50,000 vacant plots across the region that could help close the gap. While Barcelona has high population density, over 16,000 people per km², it could support up to 19,000, allowing for theoretical construction of 126,000 new homes. However, only 38,000 to 40,000 would fit on currently available plots.
Premium residential zones remain concentrated in western Barcelona, the waterfront and Sant Martí corridor, with spillover into Esplugues de Llobregat and Sant Cugat del Vallès. Yet the majority of future protected housing is expected to emerge in peripheral areas such as Corbera de Llobregat, Cervelló, Vallirana and Sant Vicenç dels Horts.
Reported by barna.news, Edu Gil, metropoliabierta.cat.
