Lleida faces water scarcity as climate change shifts agriculture

Lleida's agricultural sector faces a growing water scarcity crisis, as climate change is set to expand arable land in the region while simultaneously increasing irrigation needs to unsustainable levels, according to a new expert report.

The study, titled 'Modelling the impacts of climate change on the potential cultivation area and water deficit in five Mediterranean crops', predicts a 16% rise in water demand for Catalan crops between 2031 and 2050. This figure more than doubles previous estimates of 7%.

Experts for the Pigall consultancy produced the report, which highlights that while warmer temperatures will make new areas suitable for crops like alfalfa and almonds in the Pyrenees, and oranges in Les Garrigues, a lack of irrigation infrastructure and water resources will often make their cultivation impossible.

"Climate change can significantly affect the distribution of crops in Catalonia and generate structural changes in production," the report concludes. This year has already shown the uncertainty in water resources, with reservoirs over 85% full but snow levels at drought thresholds after a record-breaking winter.

Rising Temperatures and Reduced Rainfall

The report, based on mathematical analyses of climate and agricultural data, focuses on two key aspects of climate change: rising temperatures and reduced rainfall. These changes create a critical scenario for dryland cereals in the plains and make it difficult to introduce other crops like fodder, fruit, almonds, and olives in mid-mountain and Pyrenean areas.

While the climate will become more welcoming for these crops, the scarcity or absence of irrigation infrastructure will complicate intensive farming. "The shift towards warmer winter and summer conditions will not reduce the viability area of any of the crops," the report states. It forecasts that this evolution "will allow some to be grown in areas historically too cold for them," provided their water demands are met.

In the Pyrenees, "some Mediterranean crops may become new and interesting options," the report suggests, though "some varieties will need irrigation due to the new 'Mediterraneanisation' of the area."

Crop Shifts and Irrigation Dependence

Almond cultivation could expand by 19.4%, olive trees by 7.2%, and orange trees by 12.2%. This climatic shift will make almonds viable across most of La Noguera and Solsonès, olives in Alt Urgell and Pallars, and oranges in Les Garrigues. However, these projections come with caveats.

Mountain areas will need to plant 'late-flowering varieties' of almonds that can adapt to slightly colder conditions, or 'hybrids adapted to shorter seasons'. Olive trees will remain suitable as a rain-fed crop in 41.8% of the territory, but with a 15.4% increase in areas where irrigation will become mandatory. Barley could grow across the entire province, except for the highest parts of Aran, Pallars Sobirà, and Alta Ribagorça, though it would not survive without irrigation in the plains.

Alfalfa will see greater penetration but similar risks. "45% of the land" currently used for barley "will require irrigation," a rate expected to increase. This, the report notes, "will lead to a drop in productivity in many of the areas that require irrigation" due to the low economic margin of its cultivation. "It is often not worth irrigating it," a situation already seen in eastern Lleida. Intensive barley cultivation will require irrigation on 75% of its potential surface, and "dryland soils will presumably be less productive for alfalfa compared to the current situation."

"Most crops will be viable in more extensive areas, but the new higher altitude and rainier areas (...) will not fully compensate for the increase in areas where irrigation will be mandatory," the report concludes. "All crops will have more potential cultivation area, but will depend more on irrigation availability."

Aridity in the Pyrenees and Public Health Impacts

The Pigall report also outlines a rapid increase in temperatures, exceeding expert-deemed acceptable rates, and a significant reduction in rainfall. These effects are not limited to agriculture. The study's maps predict traces of aridity in parts of the Alt Pirineu and Aran, and will also intensify existing impacts on the population.

According to reports from the Carlos III Health Institute, 167 people died in Lleida due to heat between 2021 and 2025, an average of 33 per year. This compares to an average of 25 deaths per year between 2016 and 2020, showing that global warming is already causing intense local impacts on public health.

Climate and public health experts suggest these effects are more likely to worsen than lessen. In Lleida, which has two climatic zones, inland and mountain, forecasts for the plains indicate much warmer summers and autumns, with average increases of 1.9ºC and 1.7ºC respectively for 2031-2050. Winter and spring temperatures are expected to rise by 1.2ºC.

Temperature increases will be higher in the Pyrenees, with a 1.9ºC rise in summer, 1.8ºC in autumn, and 1.4ºC in winter. These follow earlier increases of 0.6ºC to 0.9ºC in the plains and 0.7ºC to 0.9ºC in the Pyrenees during the second decade of the century. These cumulative increases, reaching almost 3ºC in summer across both zones and 1.8ºC to 2.1ºC in winter in the plains and Pyrenees by mid-century, locally exceed the UN's IPCC warnings that a 2ºC warming between 1850 and 2100 is unsustainable.

Precipitation forecasts vary by season, with decreases of 1.1% in the plains and 1.8% in the Pyrenees in winter. Other seasons show reductions ranging from 8.9% to 11.5% in the inland area and 8.4% to 9.3% in the mountain zone. This evolution of heat and rain will intensify processes already underway.

Regarding temperatures, "the warm coastal zone will advance inland" as mountain climates recede, particularly noticeable in summer, the document indicates. From a humidity perspective, the "semi-arid Mediterranean regime will expand from the interior towards the coast as humid regimes recede significantly to higher altitudes." The report adds that there will be "a substantial increase in the subtropical thermal regime and a drastic reduction in cold and temperate maritime regimes," with the semi-arid Mediterranean humidity regime becoming "the most common regime in the future scenario."