Andalusian elections: Moreno Bonilla uses Catalonia conflict for votes

Seville journalist Gerardo Tecé, who closely follows Andalusian elections for CTXT newspaper, suggests that Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, the current president of Andalusia, uses the conflict with Catalonia to win votes. Tecé, who previously lived in Barcelona, also highlighted the critical role of healthcare in the upcoming elections.

Tecé described the recent Canal Sur debate as "strange" due to its format, particularly the allocation of time for social issues. He noted that the most important topics, such as healthcare, education, and housing, were grouped into a single, condensed segment, which he believes aimed to limit discussion on these subjects.

Early Election Called Amid Healthcare Concerns

The elections were brought forward by one month, a move Tecé attributes to an upcoming trial involving several Popular Party (PP) officials. These officials are accused of allegedly fragmenting healthcare contracts in the 'Masks case'. Tecé stated that the timing was designed to avoid the image of PP leaders appearing in court, especially given that healthcare is the primary concern for Andalusian voters.

One significant healthcare issue highlighted by Tecé involved breast cancer screenings. Thousands of women were told to undergo screenings but never received results, even when abnormalities were detected. This led many to believe they were healthy, with dramatic consequences for those who had positive results and whose tumours grew larger or, in some cases, led to death. Tecé called this a "disaster that has not been well explained" and a "great stain" on the public healthcare system, representing its abandonment.

Despite healthcare being the top concern for Andalusians, with waiting times for general practitioners increasing significantly, polls suggest many will still vote for Moreno Bonilla. Tecé finds this situation unusual, as typically the party that sets the agenda wins, but in this case, the party that should be losing on healthcare seems set to win.

Catalonia as a Political Tool

Moreno Bonilla, who was born in Catalonia, is expected to use the Catalonia conflict to garner votes in Andalusia, according to Tecé. He noted that Bonilla already did this during a recent debate when discussing regional funding. Tecé believes the PP aims to make this the central theme of the campaign, though he thinks they have not fully succeeded.

María Jesús Montero of the PSOE, a former Spanish Minister of Finance, is positioned as favouring Catalans by Moreno Bonilla's campaign. Tecé explained that the narrative portrays Montero as a member of 'sanchismo' (referring to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's government) who supports Catalan independence, a "very powerful image" for the PP.

Polls suggest the PSOE could achieve its worst-ever result in Andalusia. However, Tecé pointed out a key statistic: in the 2022 Andalusian elections, the PSOE received 800,000 votes, but in the 2023 general elections, with Pedro Sánchez as the national candidate, this figure rose to 1.4 million votes in Andalusia. This indicates a potential pool of 500,000 to 600,000 voters willing to support the PSOE if the battle is against the far-right at a national level. The question now is whether these voters will turn out for the regional elections.

The Rise of Andalusian Nationalism

Tecé also discussed the figures in the current campaign. He named José Ignacio García of Adelante Andalucía as the "MVP" of the campaign. García, a young teacher from Jerez, represents a new wave of Andalusian nationalism. Tecé praised García's didactic ability and discourse, comparing him to Gabriel Rufián for his skill in social media and message delivery.

Antonio Maíllo, leader of Izquierda Unida (United Left) and a Greek teacher, is another prominent figure. Maíllo, who previously overcame an aggressive cancer thanks to public healthcare, has returned to politics out of a sense of responsibility. Tecé contrasted García's youthful drive with Maíllo's sense of duty.

Regarding the Andalusian nationalism of Adelante Andalucía, Tecé explained that it does not primarily champion an Andalusian nation. Instead, it focuses on promoting a distinct Andalusian identity and seeking greater influence for Andalusia within Spain. He noted that many in Andalusia feel a lack of regional parties that "sweep for home" as Catalan, Basque, and Galician parties do. The aspiration is to build strength within Andalusia and represent the region externally, alongside a strong social and left-wing political agenda.